# Braves Playoff Bye Tracker - Maine Woods Baseball 2026

Owner: Jethro
Created: 2026-07-02
Purpose: Track whether the Braves will finish as the #1 or #2 seed and avoid the August 16 first-round playoff games.

## Source Baseline

Official site checked 2026-07-02:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page shows MW45 standings last updated 2026-06-30.
- Maine Woods Baseball rules say final standings determine playoff seeding; seeding criteria are:
  1. Number of wins
  2. Head-to-head competition
  3. Most runs scored
  4. Coin flip
- Rules say the first and second place teams receive a first-round bye.

## Current Standings Baseline

As of official last update 2026-06-30:

| Team | W | L | T |
| ---- | -: | -: | -: |
| Braves | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Pirates | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Giants | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Cubs | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 4 | 3 |

## Remaining Schedule Baseline

From the Braves' handoff:

### July 7
- Cardinals at Giants

### July 8
- Braves at Pirates

### July 9
- Dodgers at Cubs

### July 12
- Cardinals at Dodgers
- Cubs at Pirates
- Giants at Braves

### July 19
- Pirates at Cardinals
- Braves at Cubs
- Dodgers at Giants
- Dodgers at Giants

### July 26
- Cardinals at Braves
- Pirates at Dodgers
- Giants at Cubs

### August 2
- Cubs at Cardinals
- Pirates at Giants
- Braves at Dodgers

### August 9 makeup games
- Pirates at Braves
- Cubs at Dodgers
- Giants at Cardinals
- Cardinals at Giants

## Current Maximum Wins

Assuming all remaining scheduled games are played and ties are ignored for maximum-win purposes:

| Team | Current W | Remaining | Maximum Wins |
| ---- | --------: | --------: | -----------: |
| Braves | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Pirates | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Giants | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| Cubs | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 7 | 7 |

## Initial Mathematical Status - 2026-07-02

Braves first-round bye is not mathematically clinched yet.

Top-two seed / bye:
- Braves need 4 more wins to mathematically guarantee a top-two finish by wins structure.
- Final record at 11 wins guarantees at most one other team can finish ahead or tied in a way that affects the top-two cutoff.
- The practical path is to win 4 of the remaining 6.

#1 seed:
- Not close to clinched.
- Pirates remain the main #1-seed threat because they can still reach 12 wins and have two head-to-head games left against the Braves.
- A Braves sweep of the Pirates would dramatically improve the #1 path.

August 16 vacation:
- Not mathematically safe yet.
- Reasonable directionally because Braves control their path, but we should not treat August 16 as safe until at least after the July 8 and July 12 games are known.

## Key Games to Watch

Highest leverage:
- July 8: Braves at Pirates
- July 12: Giants at Braves
- August 9: Pirates at Braves

Helpful opposing outcomes:
- Pirates losses, especially to Braves
- Giants losses before or against Braves
- Dodgers losses because Dodgers can still reach 10 wins and remain a fringe top-two pressure point if Braves stumble

## Upcoming Braves Games

Source: official Maine Woods Baseball MW45 schedule, Last Update 7-14-26. The schedule page notes that the home team is assigned the first-base dugout.

| Date | Matchup | Braves H/A | Field | Time | Notes |
| ---- | ------- | ---------- | ----- | ---- | ----- |
| Sun July 19 | Braves @ Cubs | Away | Kelley Field | 12:00 PM | Regular season; next Braves game |
| Sun July 26 | Cardinals @ Braves | Home | Kelley Field | 9:00 AM | Regular season; top-two clinch possible if Braves win July 19 and July 26 |
| Sun August 2 | Braves @ Dodgers | Away | Edwards Field | 9:00 AM | Regular season |
| Sun August 9 | Pirates @ Braves | Home | Kelley Field | 9:00 AM | Makeup game |

## Update Procedure After Each Scheduled Game Date

1. Check the Maine Woods Baseball home page for updated standings and date.
2. Check the 2026 MW45 schedule/results if posted.
3. Confirm each completed score and whether any game was canceled, postponed, or tied.
4. Update standings and remaining games.
5. Recalculate maximum wins.
6. Recalculate:
   - Braves top-two clinch status
   - Braves #1 clinch status
   - teams that can still pass or tie Braves
   - August 16 risk
7. Maintain the Upcoming Braves Games section with any official schedule changes, including date, matchup, home/away, field, and time.
8. Report in the required update format from the Braves' handoff.

## Required Direct Answer Each Update

Always answer:
"Is the Braves' first-round bye mathematically secured, and is August 16 safe to miss?"

Use one of:
- Not yet safe
- Reasonably safe but not clinched
- Mathematically safe

## Dated Update - 2026-07-05

Official check run 2026-07-05 14:00 UTC after the tracker baseline.

Official pages checked:
- Home/standings: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/
- MW45 schedule/results: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/2026-schedule.html
- Rules: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/rules--regulations.html

Official change since baseline:
- MW45 standings update date changed from 6-30-26 to 7-5-26.
- MW45 schedule update date changed from 6-30-26 to 7-5-26.
- Standings records did not change.
- No newly completed MW45 game results were posted after 6-30-26.
- The schedule page now shows the postponed Cardinals at Dodgers makeup game on Tue. July 28 at Kelley Field 6PM.

Official standings as of Last Update 7-5-26:

| Team | W | L | T |
| ---- | -: | -: | -: |
| Braves | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Pirates | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Giants | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Cubs | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 4 | 3 |

Remaining schedule adjusted from official 7-5-26 schedule:
- 2026-07-07: Cardinals at Giants
- 2026-07-08: Braves at Pirates
- 2026-07-09: Dodgers at Cubs
- 2026-07-12: Cardinals at Dodgers; Cubs at Pirates; Giants at Braves
- 2026-07-19: Pirates at Cardinals; Braves at Cubs; Dodgers at Giants; Dodgers at Giants
- 2026-07-26: Cardinals at Braves; Pirates at Dodgers; Giants at Cubs
- 2026-07-28: Cardinals at Dodgers
- 2026-08-02: Cubs at Cardinals; Pirates at Giants; Braves at Dodgers
- 2026-08-09: Pirates at Braves; Cubs at Dodgers; Giants at Cardinals; Cardinals at Giants

Updated maximum wins:

| Team | Current W | Remaining | Maximum Wins |
| ---- | --------: | --------: | -----------: |
| Braves | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Pirates | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Giants | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| Cubs | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 8 | 8 |

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically clinched.
- Braves are the current #1 seed by wins.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 4 more wins, reaching 11. Full remaining-schedule brute-force check shows that at 11 Braves wins, at most one other team can finish with 11 or more wins.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 5 more wins, reaching 12. At 12 Braves wins, no other team can reach 12 because any Braves five-win finish includes at least one Pirates head-to-head loss or enough contender suppression.
- Current top-two magic number by wins structure is 4 Braves wins, reduced by relevant losses from Pirates/Giants/Dodgers that lower the second-place pressure.
- Current #1 magic number by wins structure is 5 Braves wins, reduced most directly by Pirates losses and by Dodgers/Giants losses if they remain in the #1 chase.

Key scenario notes:
- July 8 Braves at Pirates is the highest-leverage next game because a Braves win adds one Braves win and denies one Pirates win.
- Pirates losses help both #1 and top-two paths most.
- Giants and Dodgers losses help the top-two floor most because both can still reach 11.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for any equal-win finish: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: high, roughly 70-80% based on current lead and control of two Pirates head-to-head games, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: very high, roughly 90-95%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: low, roughly 5-10%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Pirates on 2026-07-08 and win at least one of the 2026-07-12 or 2026-07-19 games; otherwise after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not yet mathematically safe.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans for August 16 until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.


## Scheduled Check - 2026-07-05 14:00 UTC

Official site checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: MW45 standings last update now shows 2026-07-05.
- Official MW45 standings values are unchanged from the 2026-06-30 baseline: Braves 7-2-0, Pirates 6-2-1, Giants 3-4-0, Dodgers 3-4-0, Cubs 2-5-2, Cardinals 0-4-3.
- Official MW45 schedule page now shows Last Update 7-5-26.
- No completed game results after 2026-06-30 were posted/visible as of this check.
- Rules page still confirms playoff seeding by number of wins, head-to-head competition, most runs scored, coin flip; #1 and #2 receive first-round byes.

Schedule change noted:
- The 2026-07-05 MW45 schedule image includes an additional Tuesday 2026-07-28 game: Cardinals at Dodgers, Kelley Field, 6pm.
- This increases Dodgers remaining games from 7 to 8 and Cardinals remaining games from 7 to 8 versus the original handoff baseline.

Updated maximum wins as of 2026-07-05:
- Braves: 7 wins, 6 remaining, maximum 13

## Dated Update - 2026-07-12

Official check run 2026-07-12 14:00 UTC.

Official pages checked:
- Home/standings: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/
- MW45 schedule/results: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/2026-schedule.html
- Rules: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/rules--regulations.html

Official change since the 2026-07-05 scheduled check:
- MW45 standings update date changed from 7-5-26 to 7-11-26.
- The official standings are now marked as of 7/10.
- MW45 schedule update date changed from 7-5-26 to 7-11-26.
- The home page says Cubs vs Pirates on July 12 at noon has been postponed.
- No July 12 game results were posted as of this check.

Latest results confirmed from the official MW45 schedule image:
- 2026-07-07: Giants defeated Cardinals, 12-0.
- 2026-07-08: Braves defeated Pirates, 7-6.
- 2026-07-09: Cubs defeated Dodgers, 5-4.

Official standings as of 7/10:

| Team | W | L | T | Remaining | Maximum Wins |
| ---- | -: | -: | -: | --------: | -----------: |
| Braves | 8 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| Pirates | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Giants | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| Cubs | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 7 |

Remaining schedule used for maximum-win math:
- 2026-07-12: Cardinals at Dodgers; Giants at Braves.
- 2026-07-12 postponed with no new makeup date visible as of this check: Cubs at Pirates.
- 2026-07-19: Pirates at Cardinals; Braves at Cubs; Dodgers at Giants; Dodgers at Giants.
- 2026-07-26: Cardinals at Braves; Pirates at Dodgers; Giants at Cubs.
- 2026-07-28: Cardinals at Dodgers.
- 2026-08-02: Cubs at Cardinals; Pirates at Giants; Braves at Dodgers.
- 2026-08-09: Pirates at Braves; Cubs at Dodgers; Giants at Cardinals; Cardinals at Giants.

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically clinched.
- Braves are the current #1 seed by wins.
- Braves record: 8-2-0.
- Braves games remaining: 5.
- Braves maximum wins: 13.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 3 more wins, reaching 11. At 11 Braves wins, at most one of Pirates/Giants can also reach 11 because Pirates and Giants still play each other, while Dodgers can reach only 10.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 4 more wins, reaching 12. At 12 Braves wins, no other team can reach 12.
- Current top-two magic number by wins structure is 3 Braves wins, reduced by relevant Pirates/Giants/Dodgers losses that lower the second-place pressure.
- Current #1 magic number by wins structure is 4 Braves wins, reduced most directly by Pirates and Giants losses.

Key scenario notes:
- The Braves' 7-6 win over the Pirates was a major swing because it added a Braves win and denied a Pirates win.
- Pirates losses and Giants losses now help the most.
- Dodgers losses help protect the top-two floor, but Dodgers can no longer catch the Braves if the Braves reach 11 wins.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for any equal-win finish: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 80-90% based on the Braves' two-win lead over the Pirates and Giants' remaining head-to-head constraint with Pirates, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: very high, roughly 95%+, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: low, roughly 5% or less, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results are posted if the Braves win their next two games and get at least one helpful Pirates/Giants/Dodgers loss; otherwise after 2026-07-26 if the Braves keep winning.

Vacation answer:
- Not yet mathematically safe.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans for August 16 until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.
- Pirates: 6 wins, 6 remaining, maximum 12
- Giants: 3 wins, 8 remaining, maximum 11
- Dodgers: 3 wins, 8 remaining, maximum 11
- Cubs: 2 wins, 6 remaining, maximum 8
- Cardinals: 0 wins, 8 remaining, maximum 8

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured yet.
- Braves still need 4 more wins to guarantee a top-two finish under the official wins-first seeding structure, accounting for head-to-head games that deny contenders wins.
- Braves need 5 more wins to guarantee the #1 seed by wins structure without relying on tiebreakers.
- Current practical clinch watch remains after the July 8 Braves-Pirates game and July 12 Giants-Braves game.

Notification decision:
- No WhatsApp sent. Reason: there are no new official completed results/standing record changes, and 2026-07-05 is not the day after a scheduled tracked game date. The only material change was the schedule page update/additional Dodgers-Cardinals game, which is recorded here for the next scenario calculation.

## Scheduled Check - 2026-07-06 14:00 UTC

Official site checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: MW45 standings Last Update remains 7-5-26.
- Official MW45 standings values are unchanged from the 2026-07-05 scheduled check: Braves 7-2-0, Pirates 6-2-1, Giants 3-4-0, Dodgers 3-4-0, Cubs 2-5-2, Cardinals 0-4-3.
- Official MW45 schedule page Last Update remains 7-5-26.
- No completed MW45 game results after 2026-06-30 were posted/visible as of this check.
- Rules page still confirms playoff seeding by number of wins, head-to-head competition, most runs scored, coin flip; #1 and #2 receive first-round byes.

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured.
- Braves remain the current #1 seed by wins.
- Current standings and remaining schedule are unchanged from the 2026-07-05 scheduled check.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 4 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 5 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for any equal-win finish: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: high, roughly 70-80%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: very high, roughly 90-95%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: low, roughly 5-10%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Pirates on 2026-07-08 and win at least one of the 2026-07-12 or 2026-07-19 games; otherwise after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not yet mathematically safe.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans for August 16 until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- No WhatsApp sent. Reason: there are no new official completed results/standing record changes, and 2026-07-06 is not the day after a scheduled tracked game date.

## Scheduled Check - 2026-07-07 14:00 UTC

Official site checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: MW45 standings Last Update now shows 7-6-26.
- Official MW45 standings values are unchanged from the 2026-07-06 scheduled check: Braves 7-2-0, Pirates 6-2-1, Giants 3-4-0, Dodgers 3-4-0, Cubs 2-5-2, Cardinals 0-4-3.
- Official MW45 schedule page Last Update remains 7-5-26.
- No completed MW45 game results after 2026-06-30 were posted/visible as of this check.
- Rules page still confirms playoff seeding by number of wins, head-to-head competition, most runs scored, coin flip; #1 and #2 receive first-round byes.

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured.
- Braves remain the current #1 seed by wins.
- Current standings and remaining schedule are unchanged from the 2026-07-06 scheduled check.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 4 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 5 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for any equal-win finish: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: high, roughly 70-80%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: very high, roughly 90-95%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: low, roughly 5-10%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Pirates on 2026-07-08 and win at least one of the 2026-07-12 or 2026-07-19 games; otherwise after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not yet mathematically safe.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans for August 16 until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- No WhatsApp sent. Reason: there are no new official completed results/standing record changes, 2026-07-07 is a scheduled tracked game date rather than the day after one, and the Cardinals at Giants result was not yet due/postable at the 14:00 UTC check.

## Scheduled Check - 2026-07-07 14:00 UTC

Official site checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: MW45 standings Last Update now shows 7-6-26.
- Official MW45 standings values are unchanged from the 2026-07-05/2026-07-06 scheduled checks: Braves 7-2-0, Pirates 6-2-1, Giants 3-4-0, Dodgers 3-4-0, Cubs 2-5-2, Cardinals 0-4-3.
- Official MW45 schedule page Last Update now shows 7-6-26.
- Official schedule images show no completed MW45 game results after 2026-06-30 as of this check.
- The 2026-07-07 Cardinals at Giants game is still listed as scheduled for Kelley Field at 6pm, with no posted result yet. This check ran before that game time.
- Rules page still confirms playoff seeding by number of wins, head-to-head competition, most runs scored, coin flip; #1 and #2 receive first-round byes.

Schedule note:
- The 2026-07-28 Cardinals at Dodgers makeup game remains on the official schedule, now visible as a single listing at Varnum Field, 6pm.
- The 2026-07-19 Dodgers at Giants games remain a doubleheader at Edwards Field, 9am and 11:30am.
- The 2026-08-09 Giants/Cardinals makeup games remain a doubleheader at Edwards Field, 9am and 11:30am.

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured.
- Braves remain the current #1 seed by wins.
- Current standings and remaining game counts are unchanged from the 2026-07-05 scheduled check.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 4 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 5 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for any equal-win finish: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: high, roughly 70-80%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: very high, roughly 90-95%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: low, roughly 5-10%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Pirates on 2026-07-08 and win at least one of the 2026-07-12 or 2026-07-19 games; otherwise after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not yet mathematically safe.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans for August 16 until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- No WhatsApp sent. Reason: there are no new official completed results/standing record changes, and 2026-07-07 is the scheduled game day for Cardinals at Giants, not the day after a scheduled tracked game date.

## Scheduled Check - 2026-07-09 16:17 UTC

Official site checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: MW45 standings Last Update remains 7-6-26.
- Official MW45 standings values are unchanged from the 2026-07-07 scheduled check: Braves 7-2-0, Pirates 6-2-1, Giants 3-4-0, Dodgers 3-4-0, Cubs 2-5-2, Cardinals 0-4-3.
- Official MW45 schedule page Last Update remains 7-6-26.
- Official schedule images show no completed MW45 game results after 2026-06-30 as of this check.
- The 2026-07-07 Cardinals at Giants and 2026-07-08 Braves at Pirates games are still listed as scheduled with no posted result yet.
- Rules page still confirms playoff seeding by number of wins, head-to-head competition, most runs scored, coin flip; #1 and #2 receive first-round byes.

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured.
- Braves remain the current #1 seed by wins.
- Current standings and remaining game counts are unchanged from the 2026-07-07 scheduled check.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 4 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 5 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for any equal-win finish: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: high, roughly 70-80%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: very high, roughly 90-95%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: low, roughly 5-10%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Pirates on 2026-07-08 and win at least one of the 2026-07-12 or 2026-07-19 games; otherwise after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not yet mathematically safe.
- Recommendation: Wait until the next scheduled results because the July 7 and July 8 official results are not posted yet.

Notification decision:
- WhatsApp note required. Reason: 2026-07-09 is the day after the tracked 2026-07-08 Braves at Pirates game, and official results are still not posted.

## Dated Update - 2026-07-09 Reported Braves win, pending official posting

Result source:
- The Braves win was reported in WhatsApp on 2026-07-09 after the 2026-07-08 Braves at Pirates game.
- Official Maine Woods Baseball pages checked at 2026-07-09 16:17 UTC still do not show the July 7 Cardinals at Giants result or the July 8 Braves at Pirates result.
- Treat this as a pending-official scenario update until Maine Woods posts updated standings/results.

Latest result used for scenario planning:
- Braves beat Pirates on 2026-07-08.

Working standings if the reported result is accepted and all other unposted results remain pending:

| Team | W | L | T | Remaining | Maximum Wins |
| ---- | -: | -: | -: | --------: | -----------: |
| Braves | 8 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| Pirates | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Giants | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| Cubs | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 |

Braves status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured yet.
- Braves are still the working #1 seed by wins.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 3 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 4 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Full remaining-schedule brute-force check, ignoring ties, shows 11 Braves wins guarantees top two and 12 Braves wins guarantees first under this working result set.

Key scenario notes:
- The Braves win over Pirates is a double-swing: Braves gain one win and Pirates lose one remaining path to catch them.
- Pirates now max out at 11 wins if the reported result is accepted.
- Giants and Dodgers can still reach 11 wins on paper because the July 7 Cardinals/Giants result is not officially posted and Dodgers still have the added July 28 makeup.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for equal-win finishes: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 80-90%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: extremely high, roughly 95-98%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: very low, roughly 2-5%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Earliest possible clinch date: after 2026-07-19 results if the Braves win again and enough contender results break favorably; otherwise more likely after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not mathematically safe yet.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans until official standings post and the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- Send/update because this is a material reported result and it improves the Braves' bye path, while clearly labeling the result pending official posting.

## Dated Update - 2026-07-09 Official standings posted through 7/8

Official check run 2026-07-09 19:25 UTC.

Official pages checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/
- MW45 schedule/results: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/2026-schedule.html
- Rules: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/rules--regulations.html

Official change since the 2026-07-09 16:17 UTC check:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page now shows MW45 Standings as of 7/8.
- The official standings now include the 2026-07-07 Cardinals at Giants result and the 2026-07-08 Braves at Pirates result.
- This confirms the earlier reported Braves win over the Pirates.
- Schedule page Last Update remains 7-6-26.

Official standings as of 7/8:

| Team | W | L | T | Remaining | Maximum Wins |
| ---- | -: | -: | -: | --------: | -----------: |
| Braves | 8 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| Pirates | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Giants | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| Cubs | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 7 |

Remaining Braves schedule:
- 2026-07-12: Giants at Braves
- 2026-07-19: Braves at Cubs
- 2026-07-26: Cardinals at Braves
- 2026-08-02: Braves at Dodgers
- 2026-08-09: Pirates at Braves

Braves status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured yet.
- Braves are the current #1 seed by wins.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 3 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 4 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Full remaining-schedule brute-force check, ignoring ties, shows 11 Braves wins guarantees top two and 12 Braves wins guarantees first under the official 7/8 standings.

Key scenario notes:
- The Braves-Pirates result is now official in the standings, not merely a reported working scenario.
- Pirates now max out at 11 wins.
- Giants and Dodgers can still reach 11 wins on paper, so the Braves still need either more wins or contender losses before August 16 is mathematically safe.
- Dodgers at Cubs on 2026-07-09 remains relevant because a Dodgers loss would lower one top-two pressure path.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for equal-win finishes: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 80-90%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: extremely high, roughly 95-98%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: very low, roughly 2-5%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Earliest practical clinch watch: after 2026-07-19 results if the Braves win again and enough Pirates/Giants/Dodgers results break favorably; otherwise more likely after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not mathematically safe yet.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- Send/update because the official standings now confirm the Braves win and materially improve the bye path.

## Scheduled Check - 2026-07-11 04:55 UTC

Official site checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: MW45 standings Last Update remains 7-6-26 and standings are still listed as of 7/8.
- Official MW45 standings values are unchanged from the 2026-07-09 official standings update: Braves 8-2-0, Pirates 6-3-1, Giants 4-4-0, Dodgers 3-4-0, Cubs 2-5-2, Cardinals 0-5-3.
- Official MW45 schedule page Last Update remains 7-6-26.
- The official pages do not yet post a result for the 2026-07-09 Dodgers at Cubs game as of this check.
- Rules page still confirms playoff seeding by number of wins, head-to-head competition, most runs scored, coin flip; #1 and #2 receive first-round byes.

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured.
- Braves remain the current #1 seed by wins.
- Current official standings and official remaining game counts are unchanged from the 2026-07-09 official standings update because the 2026-07-09 Dodgers at Cubs result is not posted.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 3 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 4 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for any equal-win finish: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 80-90%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: extremely high, roughly 95-98%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: very low, roughly 2-5%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after 2026-07-19 results if the Braves win again and enough Pirates/Giants/Dodgers results break favorably; otherwise more likely after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not mathematically safe yet.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- No WhatsApp sent. Reason: there are no new official completed results/standing record changes, and 2026-07-11 is not the day after a scheduled tracked game date.

## Dated Update - 2026-07-11 Official standings posted through 7/10

Official check run 2026-07-11 04:57 UTC.

Official pages checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/
- MW45 schedule/results: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/2026-schedule.html
- Rules: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/rules--regulations.html

Official change since the 2026-07-11 04:55 UTC scheduled check:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page now shows MW45 Standings as of 7/10.
- Official MW45 standings changed from the 2026-07-09 official standings update: Dodgers moved from 3-4-0 to 3-5-0, and Cubs moved from 2-5-2 to 3-5-2.
- This confirms the 2026-07-09 Dodgers at Cubs game as a Cubs win for standings purposes.
- Schedule page Last Update remains 7-6-26.

Latest official result:
- 2026-07-09: Cubs beat Dodgers.

Official standings as of 7/10:

| Team | W | L | T | Remaining | Maximum Wins |
| ---- | -: | -: | -: | --------: | -----------: |
| Braves | 8 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| Pirates | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Giants | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| Cubs | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 7 |

Remaining Braves schedule:
- 2026-07-12: Giants at Braves
- 2026-07-19: Braves at Cubs
- 2026-07-26: Cardinals at Braves
- 2026-08-02: Braves at Dodgers
- 2026-08-09: Pirates at Braves

Braves status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured yet.
- Braves are the current #1 seed by wins.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 3 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 4 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Full remaining-schedule brute-force check, ignoring ties, shows 11 Braves wins guarantees top two and 12 Braves wins guarantees first under the official 7/10 standings.

Key scenario notes:
- The Cubs win helps the Braves by reducing the Dodgers' maximum wins from 11 to 10.
- Pirates and Giants can still reach 11 wins on paper, so the Braves still need either more wins or contender losses before August 16 is mathematically safe.
- A 10-win Braves finish can still leave tie-dependent top-two outcomes, so 11 wins remains the clean guarantee without relying on head-to-head, runs scored, or coin flip.
- The 2026-07-12 Giants at Braves game is now the highest-leverage next result because a Braves win adds one Braves win and denies one Giants win.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for equal-win finishes: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 82-90%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: extremely high, roughly 96-98%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: very low, roughly 2-4%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Giants on 2026-07-12 or receive enough Pirates/Giants help; otherwise more likely after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not mathematically safe yet.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- Send/update because the official standings changed and the Dodgers' maximum-win path dropped, improving the Braves' bye outlook.

## Scheduled Check - 2026-07-11 14:00 UTC

Official site checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: MW45 standings remain listed as of 7/10, with Last Update 7-11-26 on the MW45 link/notice area.
- Official MW45 standings values are unchanged from the 2026-07-11 04:57 UTC official standings update: Braves 8-2-0, Pirates 6-3-1, Giants 4-4-0, Dodgers 3-5-0, Cubs 3-5-2, Cardinals 0-5-3.
- Official MW45 schedule page now shows Last Update 7-11-26.
- Official MW45 schedule image shows the 2026-07-07, 2026-07-08, and 2026-07-09 scores already reflected in the standings: Giants 12-0 over Cardinals; Braves 7-6 over Pirates; Cubs 5-4 over Dodgers.
- Home page notice says Cubs vs Pirates on July 12 at noon has been postponed.
- The schedule image still lists Cubs at Pirates on July 12 at Kelley Field 12pm, so the postponed game should be treated as schedule-uncertain until the official page posts a makeup date or final disposition.
- Rules page still confirms playoff seeding by number of wins, head-to-head competition, most runs scored, coin flip; #1 and #2 receive first-round byes.

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured.
- Braves remain the current #1 seed by wins.
- Current official standings are unchanged from the 2026-07-11 official standings update.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 3 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 4 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- The Cubs-Pirates postponement may reduce or defer a Pirates win opportunity, which helps the Braves if it is not made up promptly, but do not recalculate Pirates maximum wins downward until the official schedule clarifies the makeup/final status.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for any equal-win finish: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 82-90%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: extremely high, roughly 96-98%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: very low, roughly 2-4%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Giants on 2026-07-12 or receive enough Pirates/Giants/Dodgers help; otherwise more likely after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not mathematically safe yet.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- No WhatsApp sent. Reason: there are no new official completed results/standing record changes since the 2026-07-11 official update, and 2026-07-11 is not the day after a scheduled tracked game date. The schedule/postponement note is recorded here for future scenario checks.

## Scheduled Check - 2026-07-12 14:00 UTC

Official site checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: MW45 standings remain listed as of 7/10, with Last Update 7-11-26 on the MW45 link/notice area.
- Official MW45 standings values are unchanged from the 2026-07-11 official standings update: Braves 8-2-0, Pirates 6-3-1, Giants 4-4-0, Dodgers 3-5-0, Cubs 3-5-2, Cardinals 0-5-3.
- Official MW45 schedule page remains Last Update 7-11-26.
- Official MW45 schedule image still shows the already posted results: Giants 12-0 over Cardinals on 2026-07-07; Braves 7-6 over Pirates on 2026-07-08; Cubs 5-4 over Dodgers on 2026-07-09.
- Home page notice still says Cubs vs Pirates on July 12 at noon has been postponed. The schedule image still lists Cubs at Pirates on July 12 at Kelley Field 12pm, so treat that game as schedule-uncertain until a makeup date/final disposition is officially posted.
- The 2026-07-12 Cardinals at Dodgers and Giants at Braves games are scheduled today and are not yet expected to have official posted results at this 14:00 UTC / 10:00 AM ET check.
- Rules page still confirms playoff seeding by number of wins, head-to-head competition, most runs scored, coin flip; #1 and #2 receive first-round byes.

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured.
- Braves remain the current #1 seed by wins.
- Current official standings are unchanged from the 2026-07-11 official update.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 3 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 4 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- The Cubs-Pirates postponement may reduce or defer a Pirates win opportunity, which helps the Braves if it is not made up promptly, but do not recalculate Pirates maximum wins downward until the official schedule clarifies the makeup/final status.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for any equal-win finish: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 82-90%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: extremely high, roughly 96-98%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: very low, roughly 2-4%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Giants on 2026-07-12 or receive enough Pirates/Giants/Dodgers help; otherwise more likely after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not mathematically safe yet.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- No WhatsApp sent. Reason: there are no new official completed results/standing record changes, 2026-07-12 is a scheduled tracked game date rather than the day after one, and the two non-postponed July 12 results are not yet due/postable at the 14:00 UTC check.

## Dated Update - 2026-07-12 the Braves family-reported Braves win over Giants, pending official posting

the Braves family reported at 2026-07-12 18:50 UTC: "We just beat the giants today."

Official pages checked after the report:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: MW45 standings still show as of 7/10, with Last Update 7-11-26.
- Official MW45 standings still list Braves 8-2-0 and Giants 4-4-0.
- Official MW45 schedule page still shows Last Update 7-11-26.
- No official July 12 Giants at Braves result was posted yet at this check.

Treat this as a pending-official scenario update until Maine Woods posts updated standings/results.

Working standings if the reported Braves win over Giants is accepted and all other unposted July 12 results remain pending:

| Team | W | L | T | Remaining | Maximum Wins |
| ---- | -: | -: | -: | --------: | -----------: |
| Braves | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| Pirates | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Giants | 4 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| Cubs | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 7 |

Remaining Braves schedule under this working scenario:
- 2026-07-19: Braves at Cubs
- 2026-07-26: Cardinals at Braves
- 2026-08-02: Braves at Dodgers
- 2026-08-09: Pirates at Braves

Braves status:
- Braves first-round bye is still not mathematically secured, because a 9-win finish can still be passed by Pirates and potentially Giants/Dodgers.
- Braves remain the current #1 seed by wins.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 2 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 3 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- The Giants' maximum-win path drops from 11 to 10 if this result is accepted, leaving Pirates as the only team that can still reach 11.

Key scenario notes:
- This is a huge bye-path result: it adds a Braves win and directly denies the Giants a win.
- Pirates losses now matter most for the #1 path.
- Dodgers can still reach 10 unless the Cardinals/Dodgers result also reduces that path; do not assume a July 12 Dodgers result until official or reported.
- The Cubs-Pirates postponement remains schedule-uncertain; do not recalculate Pirates maximum wins downward until the official schedule clarifies the makeup/final status.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for equal-win finishes: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 88-94%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: extremely high, roughly 98-99%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: very low, roughly 1-2%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Cubs or receive enough Pirates/Dodgers help; otherwise likely after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not mathematically safe yet, but much safer.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- Send/update because this is a material reported Braves win and it drops the clean top-two guarantee from 3 more Braves wins to 2, while clearly labeling the result pending official posting.

## Dated Update - 2026-07-14 Official standings posted through July 12

Official check run 2026-07-14 14:00 UTC.

Official pages checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/
- MW45 schedule/results: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/2026-schedule.html
- Rules: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/rules--regulations.html

Official changes since the 2026-07-12 the Braves family-reported pending-official update:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page Last Update changed to 7-14-26.
- MW45 standings updated to reflect all July 12 game results. Page says "as of 7/10" but values are consistent with July 12 results (possible site admin label discrepancy; records are treated as confirmed through July 12).
- MW45 schedule page Last Update changed to 7-14-26. Schedule image now named mw45-7-14_orig.png.
- The 2026-07-12 Braves 13, Giants 10 result is NOW OFFICIALLY CONFIRMED in standings.
- NEW official result: 2026-07-12 Cardinals at Dodgers — Dodgers won 15-14.
- SCHEDULE CHANGE: 2026-07-12 Cubs at Pirates officially rescheduled to Tuesday 2026-08-04 at Varnum Field, 6pm (now visible in schedule image).
- Rules page still confirms playoff seeding by number of wins, head-to-head competition, most runs scored, coin flip; #1 and #2 receive first-round byes.

Latest official results:
- 2026-07-12: Braves 13, Giants 10 (OFFICIAL)
- 2026-07-12: Dodgers 15, Cardinals 14 (OFFICIAL)
- 2026-07-12: Cubs at Pirates — rescheduled to 2026-08-04, Varnum Field, 6pm

Official standings as of 7/14 page update (reflecting results through July 12):

| Team | W | L | T | Remaining | Maximum Wins |
| ---- | -: | -: | -: | --------: | -----------: |
| Braves | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| Pirates | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Giants | 4 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| Dodgers | 4 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| Cubs | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 |

Remaining schedule (official as of 7-14-26):
- 2026-07-19: Pirates at Cardinals (Kelley 9am); Braves at Cubs (Kelley 12pm); Dodgers at Giants DH 9am & 11:30am (Edwards)
- 2026-07-26: Cardinals at Braves (Kelley 9am); Pirates at Dodgers (Kelley 12pm); Giants at Cubs (Edwards 9am)
- 2026-07-28 (Tuesday): Cardinals at Dodgers (Varnum Field, 6pm)
- 2026-08-02: Cubs at Cardinals (Kelley 9am); Pirates at Giants (Kelley 12pm); Braves at Dodgers (Edwards 9am)
- 2026-08-04 (Tuesday): Cubs at Pirates MAKEUP (Varnum Field, 6pm) — NEW confirmed date
- 2026-08-09 MAKEUP: Pirates at Braves (Kelley 9am); Cubs at Dodgers (Kelley 12pm); Giants at Cardinals + Cardinals at Giants DH (Edwards 9am & 11:30am)

Remaining games breakdown:
- Braves: 4 games (Jul 19 at Cubs, Jul 26 vs Cardinals, Aug 2 at Dodgers, Aug 9 vs Pirates)
- Pirates: 5 games (Jul 19 at Cardinals, Jul 26 at Dodgers, Aug 2 at Giants, Aug 4 vs Cubs, Aug 9 at Braves)
- Giants: 6 games (Jul 19 DH vs Dodgers x2, Jul 26 at Cubs, Aug 2 vs Pirates, Aug 9 DH at/vs Cardinals x2)
- Dodgers: 6 games (Jul 19 DH at Giants x2, Jul 26 vs Pirates, Jul 28 vs Cardinals, Aug 2 vs Braves, Aug 9 vs Cubs)
- Cubs: 5 games (Jul 19 vs Braves, Jul 26 at Giants, Aug 2 at Cardinals, Aug 4 at Pirates, Aug 9 at Dodgers)
- Cardinals: 6 games (Jul 19 vs Pirates, Jul 26 at Braves, Jul 28 at Dodgers, Aug 2 vs Cubs, Aug 9 DH at/vs Giants x2)

Braves status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured yet.
- Braves are the current #1 seed by wins.
- Braves record: 9-2-0.
- Braves games remaining: 4.
- Braves maximum wins: 13.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 2 more wins, reaching 11. At 11 Braves wins, only Pirates (max 11) can tie; Giants and Dodgers max out at 10 and cannot reach 11. A Braves-Pirates tie at 11 still puts both in the top two.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 3 more wins, reaching 12. At 12 Braves wins, no other team can reach 12 (Pirates max 11, Giants and Dodgers max 10).
- Key improvement from last update: Giants max wins dropped from 11 to 10 because the July 12 game used up one Giants game while denying them the win. This means only Pirates (not Pirates AND Giants) can now threaten at 11 wins.

Key scenario notes:
- The Braves' official 13-10 win over the Giants on July 12 is now confirmed. This is a double-positive: +1 Braves win and -1 Giants max win (Giants capped at 10).
- The Dodgers' 15-14 win over the Cardinals is a slight negative (Dodgers go from 3-5 to 4-5), but Dodgers remain capped at max 10 wins. Effect on top-two guarantee threshold: none (Braves still need 11 to guarantee top two regardless).
- Pirates remain the only team that can reach 11 wins and directly challenge the Braves' top-two position.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for equal-win finishes: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.
- August 4 Cubs-Pirates makeup confirmed: does not change max win counts (was already in remaining game totals as an expected makeup).

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 85-90%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: extremely high, roughly 97-99%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: very low, roughly 1-3%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-26 results if the Braves win both their July 19 and July 26 games (reaching 11 wins).
- Earliest possible bye clinch date: 2026-07-26 (requires Braves win Jul 19 AND Jul 26).
- Earliest possible #1 clinch date: 2026-08-02 (requires Braves win Jul 19, Jul 26, AND Aug 2).

Vacation answer:
- Not mathematically safe yet.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans for August 16. The Braves are in their strongest position yet (9-2-0, magic number 2), and a mathematical clinch could come as early as July 26 if they win their next two games. August 16 is still not safe to book non-refundable travel, but the outlook is very favorable.

Notification decision:
- Send WhatsApp. Reason: official standings changed with two new July 12 results confirmed (Braves 13-10 over Giants officially posted, Dodgers 15-14 over Cardinals new), and a schedule change (Cubs-Pirates Aug 4 makeup) is now confirmed. Today (July 14) is two days after the July 12 scheduled game dates, and official results are now posted.

## Scheduled Check - 2026-07-15 14:00 UTC

Official site checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: MW45 standings Last Update remains 7-14-26. Standings still labeled "as of 7/10" with records matching the 2026-07-14 official update: Braves 9-2-0, Pirates 6-3-1, Giants 4-5-0, Dodgers 4-5-0, Cubs 3-5-2, Cardinals 0-6-3.
- Official MW45 schedule page Last Update remains 7-14-26.
- No new completed MW45 game results since the 2026-07-14 official standings update.
- Next scheduled games are 2026-07-19 (Pirates at Cardinals; Braves at Cubs; Dodgers at Giants DH).
- Rules page still confirms playoff seeding by number of wins, head-to-head competition, most runs scored, coin flip; #1 and #2 receive first-round byes.

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured.
- Braves remain the current #1 seed by wins.
- Current official standings and remaining game counts are unchanged from the 2026-07-14 official update.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 2 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 3 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for any equal-win finish: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 90-94%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: extremely high, roughly 99%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: very low, roughly 1-3%, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Cubs and the Dodgers/Giants doubleheader splits; otherwise after 2026-07-26.

Vacation answer:
- Not mathematically safe yet.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans for August 16 until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- No WhatsApp sent. Reason: no new official completed results/standing record changes, and 2026-07-15 is not the day after a scheduled tracked game date.
- Publisher: ran successfully (--quiet, no output).
- Public tracker: https://www.davidnortonconsulting.com/braves-playoff-bye-tracker/

## Upcoming Braves Games

| Date | Matchup | Braves H/A | Field | Time | Notes |
| ---- | ------- | ---------- | ----- | ---- | ----- |
| Sun July 19 | Braves @ Cubs | Away | Kelley Field | 12:00 PM | Regular season |
| Sun July 26 | Cardinals @ Braves | Home | Kelley Field | 9:00 AM | Regular season; clinch possible if Braves win this + July 19 |
| Sun August 2 | Braves @ Dodgers | Away | Edwards Field | 9:00 AM | Regular season |
| Sun August 9 | Pirates @ Braves | Home | Kelley Field | 9:00 AM | Makeup game |

## Dated Update - 2026-07-14 Official standings posted through July 12 results

Official check run 2026-07-14 14:00 UTC.

Official pages checked:
- Home/standings: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/
- MW45 schedule/results: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/2026-schedule.html
- Rules: https://www.mainewoodsbaseball.com/rules--regulations.html

Official change since the 2026-07-12 check:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page Last Update changed to 7-14-26.
- MW45 schedule page Last Update changed to 7-14-26.
- The home page standings label still says "as of 7/10," but the displayed records now include the July 12 Braves/Giants and Cardinals/Dodgers results.
- The official schedule image confirms July 12 scores and shows Cubs at Pirates rescheduled to Tue. August 4 at Varnum Field, 6pm.

Latest official results:
- 2026-07-12: Dodgers defeated Cardinals, 15-14.
- 2026-07-12: Braves defeated Giants, 13-10.
- 2026-07-12: Cubs at Pirates was rescheduled to 2026-08-04.

Official standings shown on the home page at this check:

| Team | W | L | T | Remaining | Maximum Wins |
| ---- | -: | -: | -: | --------: | -----------: |
| Braves | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| Pirates | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Giants | 4 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| Dodgers | 4 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| Cubs | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 |

Remaining schedule used for maximum-win math:
- 2026-07-19: Pirates at Cardinals; Braves at Cubs; Dodgers at Giants; Dodgers at Giants.
- 2026-07-26: Cardinals at Braves; Pirates at Dodgers; Giants at Cubs.
- 2026-07-28: Cardinals at Dodgers.
- 2026-08-02: Cubs at Cardinals; Pirates at Giants; Braves at Dodgers.
- 2026-08-04: Cubs at Pirates.
- 2026-08-09: Pirates at Braves; Cubs at Dodgers; Giants at Cardinals; Cardinals at Giants.

Remaining Braves schedule:
- 2026-07-19: Braves at Cubs.
- 2026-07-26: Cardinals at Braves.
- 2026-08-02: Braves at Dodgers.
- 2026-08-09: Pirates at Braves.

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured yet.
- Braves are the current #1 seed by wins.
- Braves record: 9-2-0.
- Braves games remaining: 4.
- Braves maximum wins: 13.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 2 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers. At 11 wins, only Pirates can also reach 11; Giants and Dodgers top out at 10.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 3 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers. Conditional note: 2 more Braves wins can guarantee first if one of them is the August 9 head-to-head win over Pirates.
- Current top-two magic number by wins structure is 2 Braves wins, reduced by relevant Pirates/Giants/Dodgers losses.
- Current #1 magic number by wins structure is 3 Braves wins, reduced most directly by Pirates losses or by the Braves beating Pirates on August 9.

Key scenario notes:
- The official Braves 13-10 win over Giants is a major double-swing: Braves gained a win and Giants lost one remaining path to 11.
- Dodgers' 15-14 win over Cardinals keeps Dodgers' maximum at 10, so Dodgers remain a tie-dependent top-two nuisance if the Braves stall at 9 or 10 wins.
- Pirates remain the only team that can still reach 11 wins.
- A Braves win on July 19 would move the Braves to 10 wins. The earliest possible top-two clinch is after the July 19 results if the Braves win and the Dodgers/Giants doubleheader splits, leaving at most one other team able to reach 10+ wins.
- The earliest likely #1 clinch is after July 26 if the Braves win July 19 and July 26 and Pirates lose at least one of their next two; otherwise #1 may remain open until the August 9 Braves/Pirates game.
- Tiebreaker uncertainty remains for equal-win finishes: official tiebreakers are wins, head-to-head, most runs scored, coin flip. Do not assume ties count as half-wins.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 90-94%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: extremely high, roughly 99%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: very low, roughly 1% or less, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Cubs and the Dodgers/Giants doubleheader splits; otherwise after 2026-07-26 if the Braves keep winning.

Vacation answer:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured yet.
- August 16 is not fully safe until the bye is clinched.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans for August 16 until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- Send/update because the official standings and schedule changed, the July 12 Braves win is now official, and the Braves' clean top-two guarantee dropped to 2 more wins.

## Scheduled Check - 2026-07-15 14:00 UTC

Official site checked:
- Maine Woods Baseball home page: MW45 standings Last Update remains 7-14-26. The standings label still says "as of 7/10," but the displayed records remain the same values that reflected the July 12 results in the 2026-07-14 update.
- Official MW45 standings values are unchanged from the 2026-07-14 official update: Braves 9-2-0, Pirates 6-3-1, Giants 4-5-0, Dodgers 4-5-0, Cubs 3-5-2, Cardinals 0-6-3.
- Official MW45 schedule page remains Last Update 7-14-26.
- Official MW45 schedule image remains mw45-7-14_orig.png and still confirms: Dodgers 15-14 over Cardinals on 2026-07-12; Braves 13-10 over Giants on 2026-07-12; Cubs at Pirates rescheduled to 2026-08-04 at Varnum Field, 6pm.
- Rules page still confirms playoff seeding by number of wins, head-to-head competition, most runs scored, coin flip; #1 and #2 receive first-round byes.

Official change since the 2026-07-14 update:
- No new official MW45 standings, results, schedule changes, or rules changes were posted as of this check.

Official standings shown on the home page at this check:

| Team | W | L | T | Remaining | Maximum Wins |
| ---- | -: | -: | -: | --------: | -----------: |
| Braves | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| Pirates | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Giants | 4 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| Dodgers | 4 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| Cubs | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Cardinals | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 |

Remaining schedule used for maximum-win math:
- 2026-07-19: Pirates at Cardinals; Braves at Cubs; Dodgers at Giants; Dodgers at Giants.
- 2026-07-26: Cardinals at Braves; Pirates at Dodgers; Giants at Cubs.
- 2026-07-28: Cardinals at Dodgers.
- 2026-08-02: Cubs at Cardinals; Pirates at Giants; Braves at Dodgers.
- 2026-08-04: Cubs at Pirates.
- 2026-08-09: Pirates at Braves; Cubs at Dodgers; Giants at Cardinals; Cardinals at Giants.

Mathematical status:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured yet.
- Braves remain the current #1 seed by wins.
- Braves record: 9-2-0.
- Braves games remaining: 4.
- Braves maximum wins: 13.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee top two: 2 more wins, reaching 11, without relying on tiebreakers. At 11 wins, only Pirates can also reach 11; Giants and Dodgers top out at 10.
- Minimum Braves wins still needed to guarantee first: 3 more wins, reaching 12, without relying on tiebreakers. Conditional note: 2 more Braves wins can guarantee first if one of them is the August 9 head-to-head win over Pirates.
- Current top-two magic number by wins structure is 2 Braves wins, reduced by relevant Pirates/Giants/Dodgers losses.
- Current #1 magic number by wins structure is 3 Braves wins, reduced most directly by Pirates losses or by the Braves beating Pirates on August 9.

Prediction update:
- #1 probability: very high, roughly 90-94%, but not mathematical.
- Top-two probability: extremely high, roughly 99%, but not mathematical.
- Probability of playing August 16: very low, roughly 1% or less, but nonzero until a bye is clinched.
- Most likely clinch date: after the 2026-07-19 results if the Braves beat the Cubs and the Dodgers/Giants doubleheader splits; otherwise after 2026-07-26 if the Braves keep winning.

Vacation answer:
- Braves first-round bye is not mathematically secured yet.
- August 16 is not fully safe until the bye is clinched.
- Recommendation: Book only refundable plans for August 16 until the Braves clinch a top-two seed.

Notification decision:
- No WhatsApp sent. Reason: there are no new official completed results/standing record changes, and 2026-07-15 is not the day after a scheduled tracked game date.